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Why eyes are on Henrico and Chesterfield in the Va. governor’s race

HENRICO, Va. -- Henrico has long been a bellwether county, meaning a win there could lead to success statewide.

The population base in Northern Virginia can turn election, but always reports their results late.

There are two counties here locally that will be earlier indicators in the race.

Chesterfield is one of them. The county almost always votes Republican but the margin there can be telling. A tight margin is good for Democrat, a wider one good for Republicans.

Henrico County turned blue in the most recent presidential and statewide races, and also voted in the current governor.

Henrico County 2013 governor's race data

Henrico County 2016 general election data

CBS 6 political analyst Dr. Bob Holsworth says the vote margin there could be sign for Gillespie.

You can see with the maps above, from the 2013 gubernatorial race and the 2016 presidential race, which way precincts lean.

Of course, voter turnout is key in this race.

We’ll have to see how the cold, rainy weather today plays into that, but at most polling places visited today, workers said they have seen a steady stream of voters all day long.

Chesterfield County turnout was lower than normal, with a 37 percent turn out as of 5 p.m. Tuesday. Henrico County had a 40 percent turnout so far. Richmond said the turnout has been a “respectable” 37 percent.

Also, a record number of 180,204 absentee ballots were received as of Monday, according to the Virginia Department of Elections.

You can follow all CBS Election 2017 coverage, here. 

How metro Richmond voted in 2013

CHESTERFIELD
GOV
Cuccinelli – 51,114
McAuliffe – 42,865
Sarvis – 9,949

LT. GOV
Northam – 54, 135
Jackson – 48,339

Attorney General
Obenshain – 57,099
Herring – 46,508

HANOVER
GOV
Cuccinelli – 23,415
McAuliffe – 10,862
Sarvis – 3,860

LT. GOV
Jackson – 22,143
Northam – 15,820

A.G.
Obenshain – 25,705
Herring – 12,621

HENRICO
GOV
McAuliffe – 53,132
Cuccinelli – 39,400
Sarvis – 9,709

LT. GOV
Northam – 64,209
Jackson – 36,761

A.G.
Herring – 56,503
Obenshain – 45,580

RICHMOND
GOV
McAuliffe – 42,957
Cuccinelli – 9,854
Sarvis – 5,226

LT. GOV
Northam – 46,897
Jackson – 10,056

A.G.
Herring – 44,684
Obenshain – 12,678