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Hurricane Joaquin: Live Hurricane Joaquin updates for Thursday, Oct. 1

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RICHMOND, Va. -- Hurricane Joaquin has strengthened considerably over the past 24 hours.  It formed around 8 a.m. Wednesday with winds of 75 m.p.h., and winds increased to 115 m.p.h. by 11 p.m.  As of 2 p.m. Thursday, maximum sustained winds were up to 130 m.p.h., making it a category four hurricane.

The forecast track of Joaquin is complicated after Friday, with some models curving it away from the coast, some moving it into North Carolina, some moving it into Virginia, and others taking it farther north towards New York. Local effects from Hurricane Joaquin will be felt Sunday into Monday. Joaquin would bring additional rainfall on top of what occurs prior to Sunday. Click here to use Interactive Hurricane Tracker and scroll down for live Hurricane Joaquin updates.

Scott Wise October 1, 20153:46 pm

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Scott Wise October 1, 20152:46 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20152:00 pm

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Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:31 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:31 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:31 pm

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Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:30 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:30 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:30 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:30 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:30 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:30 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:30 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:29 pm

Nick Dutton October 1, 20151:29 pm

Officials say the threat of heavy rains and severe has ended The State Fair of Virginia early for 2015. Details here: http://link.wtvr.com/1KX9IqP

Scott Wise October 1, 201512:06 pm

Scott Wise October 1, 201511:56 am

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has changed significantly in the past 24 hours. This is due to more data being fed into the computer models from aircraft reconnaissance missions into the hurricane. The current forecast keeps the center and the brunt of the hurricane east of Virginia as it heads towards the northeastern United States. Read more here.

Scott Wise October 1, 201511:35 am

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The eye of Hurricane Joaquin is passing over part of the Bahamas — the Samana Cays — the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. ET advisory Thursday. The storm remains at Category 3 but has strengthened, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, the center said.

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Thursday morning update from Zach Daniel:

There were huge changes in successive model runs last night regarding the track of Joaquin. The GFS suddenly shifted Joaquin a few hundred miles east of its previous solution.

The new solution keeps Joaquin offshore through the Mid-Atlantic, with a potential landfall in New York.

These types of changes were expected, and I know that we will see more in the next couple of days.

Hurricane forecasting, and particularly in this case, is complex with many players and a huge amount of uncertainty.

My message remains the same: no need to panic, be prepared and continue to monitor the track and intensity updates. We’ll see what changes come the the morning data. Have a great day! ~ Zach

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Scott Wise October 1, 20156:41 am

Dr. Rick Knabb is the Director of the National Hurricane Center.

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NHC made a significant shift westward of the track of Joaquin, with a landfall in the OBX. Many changes forthcoming, as is typical with tropical systems, but this change is a nod toward the model consensus and a higher impact for VA. ~ Zach

Scott Wise October 1, 20155:46 am

Joaquin is now a major (category 3) hurricane. Here’s the latest (18z) wind gust and rainfall forecast from the GFS, which has been very consistent with the track and intensity of Joaquin.

From the standpoint of wind and tornadoes, areas that lie along the right side and particularly the right front quadrant of a hurricane will experience the strongest winds and greatest potential for tornadoes.

A track a little south of Richmond (Isabel, 2003) is the worst-case scenario for Richmond and adjacent counties.

These wind and rain maps are based on a track across far southern VA. ~ Zach Daniel