5 pm update:
The latest spaghetti plot of computer models shows more of the models suggesting Erika may turn away from the Florida coast and go farther north.
Previous post, 1 pm Wednesday:
RICHMOND, Va. -- Erika became a tropical storm 11 p.m. Monday in the central Atlantic. It has since moved closer to the Leeward Islands and has maintained winds around 45 mph. Wind speeds for tropical storms can range from 39 to 73 mph.
The forecast track moves Erika through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Thursday. It should then move northwestward and head towards the Bahamas this weekend. Following that, the National Hurricane Center is predicting the storm possibly making landfall across southeastern Florida late Sunday night into Monday morning as a category one hurricane.
As you can see with the track forecast, the cone shows the possible range of where Erika can go. This is based upon the varying solutions from different computer models, ranging from moving south of Cuba to heading towards the Carolinas. This forecast track will be updated over the coming days, and could change quite a bit.
Erika will have to fight dry air and wind shear, but not to the degree that Danny did. Those factors sheared Danny apart and it dissipated over Haiti.