Tropical Depression # 4 became Tropical Storm Cristobal just after 6 a.m. Sunday. A hurricane hunter aircraft flew into the storm and detected that the maximum sustained winds had jumped from 35 to 45 mph. Tropical storms contain winds of 39 mph or stronger. Cristobal was located near the southeastern Bahamas.
Cristobal will experience conditions favorable for development over the next few days, and may reach hurricane status by mid-week. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings the storm closer to the southeastern coast before it turns away from the Mid-Atlantic.
Computer model solutions over the past week have greatly varied, from a landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast to a track very close to Bermuda. The consensus of the models have suggested this forecast track for a few days.
This is a spaghetti plot of the different computer models. While a few are closer to the Gulf or Outer Banks, the majority favor a track between the east coast and Bermuda.
The reasoning for this curving track is due to areas of high pressure located in the United States and out in the Atlantic. These highs will help push or guide the storm on a path between them. The highs should move a bit over the next few days, producing the forecast track.
The exact strength and positioning of the highs are still not 100% certain, so the forecast track could change this week.
As of now, the main impact for our region will be rougher surf this week with higher waves and a high risk of rip currents. The effects will be felt the most near the Outer Banks. If the forecast track verifies, we should see no other impact on our weather.
You can always find the latest info about Cristobal in our CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker.
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