A powerful storm system, combined with a strong jet stream and major temperature contrast, will produce a severe weather outbreak across parts of the Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening.
A high risk of severe weather will extend from around Chicago to just east of St. Louis, and eastward across southern Michigan, most of Indiana, and western Ohio.
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has outlined this high risk with a 30% chance of tornadoes, some of which could be EF-2 level or stronger with winds over 110 mph.
This entire system will weaken considerably by the time it reaches Virginia Sunday night into Monday morning. There could be a few thunderstorms as the cold front approaches the mountains, but much of the energy and moisture will decrease as the system moves through much of our viewing area. We should just see some showers with gusty winds, possibly exceeding 30 mph. However, wind gusts in the mountains could exceed 40 mph.
The threat for rain will end around daybreak in the metro, followed by clearing and breezy conditions. Temperatures will stay warm for the first part of the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. However, much cooler air will arrive Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday.