Saturday Morning Update:
Our general thinking is the same, but there have been a couple of significant changes in the computer model data this morning and we’ll have to see if it’s a trend. First, there have been increasing signs that the precipitation may hold off until mid to late afternoon tomorrow. That would enable temperatures to potentially rise a bit higher before the precipitation develops. Second, most of our models are indicating less total precipitation for the event and more of a mix in the Metro, as opposed to a complete changeover to snow. Due to this trend, the potential snowfall amounts are lower across the board, but a decent accumulating snow would still be possible north and west of the Metro Richmond area.
Check back for an update this evening, as new data coming in will determine whether this is a trend. That will give us a much better picture of what to expect.
Even though the calendar shows that it is Spring, the colder trend of recent weeks continues across much of the country.
A storm system will dive from western Canada through the Rockies and Plains into the southern United States by Sunday night.
This will be one of those storms where the rain/mix/snow lines will waffle back and forth across central and southern Virginia.
Precipitation should start by late morning or early afternoon on Sunday. Cold enough air will be in place for some snow or sleet to mix with rain at the onset for the Richmond metro area. Rain is more likely east and south, with all snow for far western and northern Virginia.
During the day, slightly warmer air will try to build into the region. This should cause just a cold rain in the metro and points south and east. A wintry mix will still be present to the northwest of the metro, and all snow is likely in western and northern Virginia.
By Sunday evening into Monday, the changeover to snow will work its way to the coast. At least a few hours of all snow will be likely for the metro.
Ground temperatures should remain above freezing in the metro much of Sunday, but slick spots will be possible northwest, and accumulating snow will begin across northern and western Virginia. Ground temperatures will get cold enough for the snow to stick in the metro area Sunday night into Monday.
As of right now, accumulations east and far south of the metro appear to be light, if any at all. In the Richmond metro area, a minor accumulation is possible. Accumulating snow is more likely northwest of the metro, and a heavier snowfall will take place across northern and western Virginia.
Just like with any storm, the exact storm track is key. A shift of just 50 miles in track means a huge difference between where the rain/mix/snow lines lay out. We will continue to update the forecast as new data becomes available. But, in essence, the period of Sunday into Monday will be messy for much of the area, with the potential for heavy snow in western and northern Virginia.
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