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Tough early Winter forecast for Mid-Atlantic

FrostyMorning

RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) – The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its updated three-month outlook for temperature and precipitation for the U.S. As we’ve mentioned in  previous posts about the El Niño/La Niña–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), there were some indications that the Equatorial Pacific Ocean region was shifting to an El Niño, but instead near-neutral conditions prevail.

ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through mid-2013.

The reason why we even care about ENSO is because its impacts are most-felt in our North America winter months. Here’s what a typical El Niño looks like across the globe.

But with ENSO seemingly out of the cards for this Winter, the type of Winter we experience in the Mid-Atlantic will be determined by shorter-term weather patterns.

With little to guide us for now (it’s still too early to call dibs on the North Atlantic Oscillation and other week to several-week patterns like it), the CPC forecast shows we have “EC” or “Equal Chances” for either above or below normal temperatures and precipitation for December, January and February. The CPC says, “The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, ENSO.”

We will be tracking these shorter-term patterns that set up through the Winter months and keep you ahead of the storm!

Meteorologist Carrie Rose
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