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Crunch Time In High School Football

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RICHMOND (WTVR) – Agree or disagree, the VHSL power ratings have set a clear path for most teams that have eyes on the playoffs. Heading into the final week of the regular season in the Central Region, the only real question surrounds which teams will get to play at home in the first round next Friday night.

Both Division 5 and Division 6 have a certain level of intrigue concerning their final spots. Both divisions have five teams vying for 4 spots…although in D-6, Friday night’s matchup between Varina and Highland Springs will take care of that question.

WARNING: I have not, nor will I do any of the extra math required to actually figure out these scenarios down to the decimal point!!!! This is merely educated speculation which is easier and much more fun.

Division 6 ratings:

1-Hermitage             33.7

2-Highland Springs  33.3

3-L.C. Bird               31.1

4-Meadowbrook       31.0

5-Varina                    30.4

Again, the only real questions in D-6 are: which teams will get the top two spots, and who will take the Capital District’s automatic berth. Hermitage and Bird have clinched their districts. Meadowbrook faces a potential upset at home against Matoaca Friday night, but even if the Monarchs were to fall, it’s unlikely Dinwiddie would earn enough rider points from beating Petersburg to rise above Meadowbrook.

So Highland Springs and Varina hold the first real playoff game this Friday. If the Springers win, there’s a good chance they could get the number one seed in D-6 over Hermitage, which closes their regular season with Patrick Henry. If Varina wins, it will be interesting to see if they can vault all the way from 5th to 2nd and secure a home game. A Meadowbrook win could also put the Monarchs at home next week with a Springers loss.

Division 5 ratings:

1-Lee-Davis/Dinwiddie       27.2

3-Hopewell                          26.6

4-Hanover                           26.5

5-Midlothian                        26.0

6-Atlee                                24.7

First off, I am told that Atlee does have a mathematical shot at getting in, but they need to beat Lee-Davis and get lots of help, most notably they would need Glen Allen to win at Hanover. Now, the Hawks two straight losses have dropped them from first to fourth in the D-5 ratings, but a third straight loss is highly unlikely.

Hopewell closes at Prince George which may not improve their rating all that much. Likewise a Hanover win over Glen Allen may not move their meter much either. However, Midlothian closes with Manchester, and if the Trojans can win that game (which they must) it could give them enough rider points to move up into the top 4. It would also be Midlo’s first win over the Lancers since 2001.

The two tied for the top in D-5 close with Atlee and Petersburg respectively. If Lee-Davis and Dinwiddie both win, the Confederates should have enough to get the top seed. Should they both lose, it could open the door for any of the following 3 teams to grab the top spot assuming they can all win. Last year, Lee-Davis needed to beat Atlee just to make the playoffs. This year, it will be for the top seed in the division.