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National polls indicate dead heat in Obama-Romney battle

Campaign 2012

By Paul Steinhauser, CNN Political Editor

Washington (CNN) – Three new national polls of likely voters released in the past 24 hours indicate the race for the White House is all knotted up and suggest that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last Wednesday’s first presidential debate.

According to a CNN Poll of Polls that averages all three non-partisan, live operator surveys, Romney has the support of 48% of likely voters, with President Barack Obama at 47%. While the CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error, the margin is well within the sampling error of the three surveys averaged into the CNN Poll of Polls.

The surveys are the Pew Research Center, which was conducted October 4-7 (entirely after the debate), American Research Group, which was conducted October 5-8 (entirely after the debate), and the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, which was conducted October 2-8 (partially before and mostly after the debate).

The Gallup daily tracking poll indicated Romney at 49% and Obama 47% among likely voters.

This is Gallup’s first release of a tracking poll of likely voters, so no comparison can be made to pre-debate surveys from Gallup.

The ARG poll indicates the former Massachusetts governor at 48%, with Obama at 47%. According to ARG’s previous poll, conducted Sept. 27-30, the president was at 49% and Romney at 46%.

The Pew Poll indicates Romney with a 49%-45% advantage over Obama. In Pew’s previous survey, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.

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