Tracking Isaac

Posted on: 7:36 am, August 22, 2012, by , updated on: 12:44pm, August 22, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac formed Tuesday afternoon, and is near the Windward Islands (marked with a red circle above).  A new tropical depression (#10, marked by the yellow circle) is farther out in the Atlantic, and should develop in Tropical Storm Joyce.  The track of that would stay out in the Atlantic, near or east of Bermuda (see forecast track graphic at the bottom of the page).

Isaac should become a hurricane over the next few days and cross over Haiti and Cuba.  The forecast track brings Isaac to southern Florida on Sunday night into early Monday morning.  Winds during landfall could be over 90 m.p.h.

The various computer models that we use are plotted below with their respective takes on the storm.  You can see there are a few outliers, with landfalls ranging from the Carolinas down through Florida.

One thing of note is even though there are some different possible areas of landfall, most models suggest that the remnants of Isaac could actually move into our area by the middle and end of next week.  If this does occur, it could spell for some decent rainfall for us.

Keep in mind that although this may bring back thoughts of Irene from last year, Isaac’s track will be much different.  Instead of spending a lot of time over water before a landfall in the mid-Atlantic, Isaac will be over land for a few days before reaching us.

Rainfall totals from Irene (courtesy of NCDC):

Forecast track for Tropical Depression # 10 (which will become Tropical Storm Joyce):