Could the United States begin shrinking? New data from the Congressional Budget Office suggests that without immigration, the U.S. birth rate will not be sufficient to maintain the population.
According to a report released on Thursday, deaths will outnumber live births in the U.S. starting in 2023. This data comes as President Donald Trump and his administration place significant limitations on immigration to the U.S.
The result of an aging population is that workforce participation will decrease, and there will be a higher proportion of the U.S. population using entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
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The projections, which run from 2025 through 2055, only take into account policies that were in place as of Jan. 6, 2025, and do not consider potential changes enacted by the Trump administration. Mass deportations of people in the U.S. could hasten a decline in the population beyond what is projected.
The new data also suggests that the amount of U.S. debt relative to the national gross domestic product will reach record levels in 2029, exceeding the previous high during World War II. The amount of debt held by the public is expected to grow through at least 2054, reaching 156% of the annual GDP of the U.S. by then.
But the report notes that spending policies, which were enacted late in the Biden administration, have cut deficit projections through 2054. In last year’s report, officials projected that U.S. debt would equal 168% of the nation’s GDP by then.
Health care costs are expected to surge relative to the GDP. For the last three decades, major health care programs have cost the U.S. about 4.4% of the GDP. By 2055, that figure is expected to increase to 8.1%.
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Social Security has cost the U.S. about 4.5% of the nation’s GDP over the last three decades. In 2055, that figure could reach 6.1%.
In the meantime, the percentage of Americans in the workforce is expected to decline from current levels.
