RICHMOND, Va. -- The disturbance that we have been watching in the Caribbean strengthened into Tropical Storm Ian late Friday evening.
Ian will be located south of Jamaica into Saturday night. The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) takes Ian towards the Cayman Islands Sunday night, when it is expected to become a hurricane.
The storm will then track towards western Cuba Monday night into Tuesday morning. Once it moves into the southeastern Gulf Of Mexico Tuesday into Tuesday night, Ian could become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher, with winds over 110 mph).
As of now, the center of the storm is forecast to arrive between Tampa and Cedar Key, Florida, Wednesday night. The storm will be very big, so more locations will be affected other than where the center will make landfall.
Ian will be pushed between areas of high pressure and a low pressure trough. If these features shift a bit, this will push the storm farther west or east.
Notice on the track map above from the NHC, the "cone of uncertainty" also covers the northeastern Gulf Of Mexico and more of Florida.
A spaghetti plot of various computer models shows a wide range of options, especially after the storm is near Florida. The exact track will determine if we will see any rain, but a few models are showing we have the potential for an inch or more of rain. This rain would likely occur later Friday into Saturday. However, if the storm tracks farther to the east or west, this would decrease or eliminate our rain chances.
More information can be found in the CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker, and we will post more updates about the local effects on our weather page.
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