RICHMOND, Va. -- When hurricanes look like they're going to make landfall, government agencies for areas in its path are faced with a decision: if and when to issue an evacuation order.
"This is a very challenging and difficult decision," Majid Shafiee-Jood, a research assistant professor in the University of Virginia's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, said.
The engineering professor hopes to make the decision easier or at least more informed with the Hurricane Evacuation Order Database, which he and others created at the University of Virginia.
"I was really interested to know how people are making decisions in response to hurricane watch, hurricane warning or evacuation orders," Shafiee-Jood said.
He said the database contains details from 25 hurricanes from 2014 to 2022, including areas under evacuation orders, when they were issued, when they went into effect, and then comparing it with cellphone data from people in those areas to see if the orders were followed.
"We are trying to figure out after that analysis whether or not there are interesting observations or patterns in terms of disseminating the information," Shafiee-Jood explained. "So that we can provide some policy recommendations to the emergency managers."
Among the questions they hope to answer is what's the best time to issue an order, how long would be needed for people to do so and who should be issuing the message.
"In states like Virginia, South Carolina, where the messaging about the orders are very centralized from the governor's office," Shafiee-Jood said."Whether that's more effective or in cases like Florida or North Carolina, where the counties and localities are mainly in charge of making evacuation orders."
Shafiee-Jood said making the wrong call carries different impacts depending on time. For example, if an evacuation order is too late, more lives could be put at risk.
But issuing the order too soon could cost tens of millions in unneeded preparation if the hurricane path changes as Virginia experienced with Hurricane Florence in 2018.
"If you are issuing a mass evacuation and you're expecting people to listen to you and evacuate," Shafiee-Jood said. "But, then, essentially, it becomes a false alarm then there is a chance that the public trust may become less."
Shafiee-Jood said part of the inspiration for this database was during COVID when cellphone data was used to see if people complied with stay-at-home orders.
The professor added that as hurricanes and evacuation orders happen during this season, and in the years to come, officials plan to keep adding to the database.
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