RICHMOND, Va. — When Richmond voters elected Danny Avula as the city's next mayor, he became the first non-African American candidate to win that seat since Richmonders began electing a strong mayor in 2004.
What, if anything, does that say about changing demographics in Richmond?
CBS 6 Bill Fitzgerald and CBS 6 political analyst Bob Holsworth discussed the issue.
"What happened here, was that Danny Avula ran what I would consider to be the best campaign, and he had the resources to do so," Holsworth said. "He was on television early. He had the background [as] City Health Commissioner. He was known because he was a COVID czar for [Virginia Governor] Ralph Northam. So he had some real advantages coming into this race."
"Michelle Mosby [who is African-American] did as well," Holsworth continued. "She had been City Council president. She had a geographic base, but she was not able to extend her base beyond those three districts she won to the rest of the city, in part, maybe because of her campaign, but in part because she simply did not have the resources, the financial resources, to do so."
Holsworth said Mosby had an endorsement issue as well.
"She did have endorsement from a lot of City Council people and from state delegates, but by and large, I never saw a campaign that extended the reach into the other districts in the city," he said.
"So when you look at the actual map of how the voting played out, Avula took District 1 thru 5, and the 7th District, [Mosby won] 6, 8, and 9. She basically won the still majority concentrated African American districts," Fitzgerald said. "It seems the actual demographics, the makeup of the city itself, has changed, to your point, that you really need a city-wide campaign... that is to get out of just one district or two districts."
"The demographics of the city have changed fairly dramatically," Holsworth replied. "What we've seen over the last 10 or 15 years is so many people moving into the city and purchasing homes. And what they've done is they've raised the price of homes in the city. We've seen a lot of gentrification."
Holsworth said that the gentrification and rising real estate prices have altered neighborhoods since Richmond shifted from appointing a mayor to electing one.
"So what has happened is that at one time, when we first started sort of the elected mayor, the majority of the districts were majority African American. That's no longer the case," he said. "So if you're going to win city wide, you're going to have to extend beyond that. You're going to have to build a coalition that can go beyond sort of one community. And again, Michelle Mosby just didn't have the resources to do it."
The most recent census data showed 91,000 Black or African American residents in the City of Richmond versus 98,000 white residents.
Holsworth also pointed to Mosby's reliance on other candidates' success to help take the race into a runoff between her and Avula where she may have faired better in a one-on-one race.
"Harrison Roday raised over a million [for his campaign], but he was not very well known," Holsworth said. "Mosby, in some odd way, was dependent on Roday winning a couple of districts and throwing this race into a runoff. When he didn't do it, she really didn't have much of a chance."
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