RICHMOND, Va. -- Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Tim Kaine lead their political challengers in Virginia, according to a newly released Commonwealth Poll.
The Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs surveyed 809 potential Virginia voters between between June 24 and July 3, 2024 to compile the date used in the poll.
Some of the responses followed the first presidential debate on June 27, which many considered a disaster for President Biden.
Former Gov. Doug Wilder told me the poll shows nothing can be taken for granted in Virginia. "It's telling us something about Virginia, and I've said it on a regular basis: Virginia should not be regarded as a blue state nor red state," Wilder said. "I used to call it a purple state, but I now think it's a 'people' state. People in Virginia are now looking to the candidates to discuss the issues. 'Don't tell me what I've got to do because of your party affiliation: what have you done?'"
Wilder also said seeing a candidate campaigning has an impact on voters. "Kaine has lived here for the better part of his life. He knows the government well. He's campaigned well, and he is campaigning now," said Wilder. "He's not telling anybody to vote for me, because I'm Tim Kaine. He's saying, 'vote for me, because these are the things I have done. These are the things I want to do.' And he's going all over Virginia. I have not heard a single word from anybody in the Biden campaign directly nor indirectly. I'm not saying they need to talk to me. But I know a little bit about what goes on in the state."
But Wilder also cautioned that while the poll raises concerns for the Biden campaign, it has a warning for Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, whose approval rating as measured by the 'favorability gap,' slipped by seven points, from 54%-36%, an 18-point gap, to 50%-39%, a net of 11 points.
"It shows you that maybe Governor Youngkin thought that what he has been doing is beneficial to the Republican Party or to himself, and yet you see the difference?" Wilder said. "I think it was a shocker for him to see that his favorability has dropped. It had to be related to, not just 'What have you done in Virginia?' No. 'What have you done lately, if anything?'"
The Summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll
Margin of error +/- 4.8%
Presidential Race in Virginia
Donald Trump (R) - 39%
Joe Biden (D) - 36%
Note from VCU: When respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election for president were held today and they had to decide now, former President Trump, the Republican, slightly leads, with 39% saying they would vote for him, compared with 36% who would vote for President Biden, the Democrat.
The difference is less than the margin of error for this poll, but the results reflect a shift toward former President Trump since the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll, which had President Biden leading former President Trump (43%-40%).
For the remaining candidates, 9% of Virginians in the new poll say they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% for Jill Stein and 1% for Cornel West.
Three-quarters of Democrats say they would vote for President Biden, while 82% of Republicans would vote for former President Trump. Six percent of both Democrats and Republicans indicate they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr.
Also, Independents are most likely to vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., with 27% supporting him. Black Virginians are more likely to vote for President Biden (46%), but this number has dropped by 20 points since the winter poll, when 67% supported him.
U.S. Senate Race in Virginia
Tim Kaine (D) - 49%
Hung Cao (R) - 38%
Note from VCU: Virginians were also asked whether they would vote for Sen. Tim Kaine, the Democrat, or Hung Cao, the Republican, if the election for U.S. senator were held today.
Nearly half of Virginians (49%) indicate they would vote for Senator Kaine, with 38% supporting Hung Cao.
Preferences were heavily polarized by political party, with 89% of Democrats favoring Senator Kaine and 81% of Republicans favoring Hung Cao.
Nearly half of Independents (48%) say they would vote for Senator Kaine.
Top Issues
- Rising cost of living
- Women’s reproductive rights
- Immigration
Note from VCU: Virginians were then asked to cite the most important issue impacting how they vote. Overall, the three most important voting issues for Virginians are the rising cost of living (31%), women’s reproductive rights (23%) and immigration (12%).
For Democrats, the most important issues are women’s reproductive rights (42%) and the rising cost of living (20%). For Republicans, the most important issues are the rising cost of living (43%) and immigration (23%).
For Independents, the rising cost of living (36%) and women’s reproductive rights (17%) were the top two issues. Female Virginians were more likely to view women’s reproductive rights as the most important issue (34%) compared with male Virginians (12%).
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