RICHMOND, Va. -- Florence went from hurricane to tropical storm status late Thursday. It is expected to strengthen greatly this weekend into the first part of the week as it encounters warmer ocean water and less wind shear.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Florence will become a major hurricane, possibly reaching category four by late Tuesday.
There are many things that will influence Florence's path over the next week, including steering winds and areas of high and low pressure. The forecast track is based on where those items will located and how strong they will be. Hurricane reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the storm and provide additional data for the computer models.
In the short-term, the storm is expected to continue west, then turn more northwesterly after the weekend. From that point forward, there is still some uncertainty of where it will go.
Here is a plot of the different computer models from early Saturday:
This plot includes different model runs and solutions over the past 24 hours, showing a landfall anywhere from Florida to Maine, as well as it curving away from the USA.
Out of all of those solutions, some of the latest computer models are indicating the landfall may be somewhere between Cape Hatteras and Charleston, South Carolina. A lot will change over the next few days as the storm gets closer and more data is available, so do not get locked into one forecast path as of yet.
No matter where this storm goes, it will create high surf and erosion at the beaches. If we do see any other local impacts, they would begin after Wednesday, increasing Thursday into Friday. This would mainly be after the storm makes landfall and moves inland, and whether the storm pushes west or north after landfall.
Things to keep in mind now:
- Keep checking back for frequent updates on the forecast track
- Know that if we see a local impact, it would be later in the week
- Click here if you want information about hurricane preparedness
There are more details about Florence in the CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker.
The tropics are very active now. Besides Florence, there is a disturbance near Bermuda, but the odds of any development are very low. Helene is near Africa, and is expected to move into the central Atlantic, then push northward. Another system in the eastern Atlantic will become Isaac, then track towards the Caribbean.
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