Wintry mix chances increase Monday

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RICHMOND, Va. --Sunday’s chances for wintry weather look less and less likely with each model run, with just a little light rain possible across southern Virginia.

The biggest change in the forecast is to increase chances for a wintry mix on Monday, as there is now a more impressive signal for a wintry mix in the area.

Things turn a bit more interesting by Monday morning as energy shifts to the coast where a new storm will develop and strengthen as it moves offshore.  This will spread a shield of precipitation across the region.

Precipitation type will depend on where you are, as the low level temperatures will be marginal for snow, leading to a mix in many locations.  With much of the precipitation occurring during the daylight hours and road surfaces being relatively warm, slushy accumulations will be limited to grassy surfaces, decks, etc.

We could potentially see an inch or two of slush across central Virginia, with very little if anything near the coast (where mainly rain will occur).

Areas west of I-95 have the best shot at several inches of accumulation (as it looks now an area from Orange/Culpeper south through Louisa and down to Farmville).  Again, this will be a mix of wet snow and rain, so the accumulation forecast is a rather low confidence one.  Temperatures will be above the freezing mark, averaging in the mid 30s to low 40s.

We’ll clear out later Monday night, with dry and chilly weather in the picture Tuesday and Wednesday.  Afternoon highs will be in the 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s.  There will be a bit of a breeze around as well, particularly on Tuesday.

Temperatures will moderate later in the week, with highs in the low and mid 50s Thursday rising into the low and mid 60s by the start of next weekend.

Southerly winds will develop Thursday and Friday boosting highs into the mid 50s on Thursday and mid 60s on Friday.

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