RICHMOND, Va. -- While we continue to track Harvey and the flooding in Texas, we are also watching a potential tropical system developing near Florida that is unrelated to Harvey.
An area of disturbed weather has moved from the eastern Gulf of Mexico over Florida, and is now off the southeastern Georgia coast. Some computer models show this system becoming a tropical depression or perhaps a tropical storm by late Monday. If that occurs, it would be named Irma.
The forecast track from the computer models so far bring the system along or just off the southeastern coast. After that point, some head it out to sea and others bring it towards the Outer Banks. A couple of isolated models have been bringing the storm near Virginia Beach. However, the consensus of all of the models is suggesting a track near or just east of the Outer Banks, which would mean minimal impact to central Virginia.
Our chance of rain will increase Monday night into Tuesday, especially for areas southeast of Richmond. This system will not be gigantic in size, so there will be a sharp cutoff of the western edge of the rain.
The biggest impact would be at the coast in areas like Virginia Beach in terms of rough surf and strong rip currents. Waves may reach or exceed 12 feet Monday through Tuesday. Rain could total an inch or more and gusts could reach over 40 mph.
Coastal flooding will be possible near the Bay, and winds there could gust over 35 mph.
Rain and wind speeds will decrease Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the system will be well off the east coast.
Unless the storm takes a farther west path, impacts to the metro would be periods of some rain and perhaps some gusts over 25 mph.