RICHMOND, Va. -- A steady light to moderate snow will be over much of central Virginia during the early morning hours. Temperatures will hold in the low and mid 20s for the morning commute. All of the precipitation across our area will be snow at daybreak.
Here is an hour-by-hour breakdown of the precipitation. The computer models tend to push Arctic air out too quickly in situations like these, so the changeover to freezing rain (pink) and rain on these maps may be slightly premature:
Warmer air will first move in aloft, battling the Arctic air that has been in place this weekend. Temperatures near the ground will stay near or below freezing into Monday afternoon, but temperatures above the surface will rise above freezing. This layer of warmer air may cause a brief period of sleet. This is when snow melts to rain, but those drops travel back through colder air and freeze into ice pellets.
As the warm layer expands and grows deeper, precipitation will change to freezing rain. Snow will melt to liquid rain and stay liquid rain until it hits the ground. However, ground temperatures will still be below freezing, so that liquid rain will freeze into ice once it makes contact with the ground or objects, like trees and power lines.
Surface temperatures will gradually rise above freezing Monday afternoon into Monday night, switching all precipitation over to just plain rain. This will occur first across far southeastern Virginia, and then this process will move slowly northwest across the metro and then west of I-95.
Snowfall accumulations will be highly dependent on the timing of the transition periods over to freezing rain and then plain rain. The freezing rain will add some ice accumulation on top of the snowfall, but as temperatures warm up and the precipitation changes to all rain, the snow and ice will all melt.
- The lightest accumulations will be across southeastern Virginia, where a coating to an inch or two will be possible.
- From the Northern Neck back through the metro and for areas west of I-85 and I-95, an accumulation of a few inches (2"-4") will be possible before the changeover to freezing rain. An ice accumulation of a 1/4 to 1/2" is possible on top of the snow accumulation.
- Areas farther north and west will likely see 4" of snow, but some higher amounts are possible depending on the exact timing of the changeover to freezing rain. Ice accumulation of a 1/2" or more is possible.
Here is a timeline summary of how the storm will affect us:
MONDAY - MORNING:
Snow will move in across all of Virginia with some accumulation. Travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Temperatures in the teens and 20s, which will make the snow very powdery.
MONDAY - NOON:
Snow will transition to freezing rain, most likely south and east of the metro. Far southeastern Virginia may even switch to all rain by this point. Areas well west and northwest of Richmond will likely still be all snow.
MONDAY - AFTERNOON:
All rain across far southern and southeastern Virginia. A period of freezing rain in the metro with a glaze of ice possible, followed by plain rain by late afternoon or early evening. Areas well west and northwest of Richmond will gradually transition from snow to freezing rain by late afternoon or early evening. There may be a brief lull in the precipitation mid to late afternoon.
MONDAY- EVENING:
Plain rain with temps above freezing in the metro and southeast Virginia. Areas well west and northwest of the metro will see primarily freezing rain with ice accumulation.
MONDAY- NIGHT:
All rain for central, eastern and southern Virginia. Colder areas to the west and northwest will see freezing rain transitioning to plain rain as temperatures rise above freezing. Metro temps will warm into the 40s.
TUESDAY:
Morning rain for most areas. Rain will be heavy at times, and a rumble of thunder is possible. There could be some freezing rain closer to I-81, especially in the higher elevations. Rain will end from west to east from late morning into early afternoon.
Stay With CBS 6, The Weather Authority, for further updates.
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