Prediction Market: Clinton’s odds increase for nomination after Biden’s announcement
WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton’s chances for the Democratic nomination increased after Vice President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that he wouldn’t run, according to the Political Prediction Market.
Before Biden’s decision, Clinton’s chances for the nomination stood at 69%. In the five minutes before the vice president spoke, the former secretary of state’s odds increased from 69% to 73%. They shot up to 78% once Biden said he wouldn’t run. Now her odds hover around 82%.
Biden’s chances were at 14% earlier Wednesday, and then went down to 5% in the minutes leading up to his Rose Garden speech.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ chances for the nomination have also increased after Biden’s announcement, though not as dramatically. Sanders was at an 11% and then ticked up to 14% in the minutes leading up to the announcement. Sanders’ odds for winning the Democratic nomination in the Political Prediction Market are at 17%.
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee’s chances did not change after the announcement — they are each still at a 1% chance for the nomination.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market is a live online prediction market administered by a company called Pivit that accounts for polls and other factors, including input from online players. It’s not to be confused with polling from actual voters.
A CNN/ORC poll from October 14-17 found that Clinton gains a larger edge over Sanders once Biden’s backers move to support their second choice for the nomination.
The survey found that if Biden were in the race, Clinton polled at 45% out of the American voters surveyed and Sanders polled at 29%. With Biden not running, the survey had Clinton polling at 56%, which was more than Sanders who polled at 33%.