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WEATHER: Tracking Much-Needed Rain

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Today will be yet another dry day in the books in RVA,  pushing the 2014 rainfall deficit to over 7″.  We’ll get a little help from mother nature tomorrow, as low pressure off the Southeast coast moves northward into the Mid-Atlantic.  Here’s a snapshot of the current setup, with high pressure to our northwest, responsible for the cool day today, and the low to our south:

setup

Rain will be most likely across eastern Virginia, with lower probabilities and amounts the farther west you go.  Here are the rain chances during the day Wednesday:

mike pop

The rain will begin very early in the morning across Southside Virginia and Hampton Roads, with a gradual progression of the rain to the north-northwest throughout the day.  Here’s the time of arrival of the rain:

Rainfall Arrival Time

Models are all over the place in their handling of the totals to expect from this event, with as much as 4″ across coastal Virginia from the most aggressive model, to less than an inch from the least impressive solution.  The Euro isn’t the most HiRes for localized rainfall totals, but I like the spatial aspect of the totals, with the heaviest east and the lightest west.  These amounts in central VA are probably a little on the high side, but even getting half of these totals would be a shot in the arm:

state rain euro

The rain will end early Thursday, and we’ll start another stretch of dry and increasingly warm weather in Virginia.  I’ll have new data arriving just before the 11 PM News on CBS 6, so tune in for updates.  Follow me on Twitter and “like” my Facebook page for frequent weather updates.

-Zach

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