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Sunday storm: Chances for decent snowfall dwindling

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RICHMOND, Va. -- The potential for a winter storm has been mentioned over the past few days.  With each new computer model run, however, the chances of us seeing any decent snowfall are dwindling.

As of now, it looks like a lot of the energy with this system will move across North Carolina and we will just be on the northern edge.

The energy that will develop into the Sunday storm is currently over the eastern Pacific, where data collection for the computer models is sparse.  This energy will move into the Pacific northwest Thursday night into Friday.  Once there, it will be within the zone where we can get a lot of data to feed into the computer models.  (For those who look at computer models and snowfall forecasts online, keep in mind these projections are based on minimal data and the system is over 3,000 miles away.)

The reason for the models pushing the storm farther south is based on an area of high pressure moving from the northern Plains into the eastern United States.  The strength of this high, combined with drier air at the surface across central Virginia, will both work against us seeing any significant snowfall.

Here are two different computer model projections for Sunday morning.  The light blue shows very light snow or flurries:

If this forecast path verifies, we will see little if any snowfall.  At worst, perhaps a dusting to under one inch, mostly well south of I-64.

A lot will change over the next few days.  The computer model runs Friday afternoon into Saturday will provide better precision.  Should the track of this storm move farther north, then our chances for measurable snow will increase.

Of note, the latest runs of the computer models are showing a storm that may give us a mix or some snow next Monday night into Tuesday.  The energy for this is in northern Canada and closer to the Arctic Circle, so once again, a lot will change with the track of that potential system, if it develops or affects us at all.

Stay With CBS 6, The Weather Authority.