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Hurricane Matthew moving slowly, forecast track shifting

RICHMOND, Va. -- Hurricane Matthew remains a strong category 4 hurricane Monday afternoon with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph.  It is currently moving north at around 6 mph.  The storm's speed is not expected to dramatically increase over the next few days.  Here's the satellite and storm information as of the Monday 11 A.M. advisory:


The latest forecast path brings the center of the storm east of Jamaica and near western Haiti Monday into early Tuesday.  After that, the center should move across far eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas towards mid-week.  This will be a very large storm, so areas well away from the center will be affected.  The storm's slow speed will allow very heavy rainfall (15"-25" likely with some amounts up to 40" possible over Haiti and the southwest Dominican Republic), intense winds and high storm surge (possibly over ten feet above normal) to pummel the land areas in its path.

Later in the week, the forecast path remains a big question.  Computer model solutions range from a landfall in eastern Florida or North Carolina to a path closer to Bermuda.  The model consensus continues to favor the center staying off the eastern seaboard.  The reason for such a variance of possible paths is due to how some factors (like a tropical wave which may move towards Bermuda, a ridge east over the Atlantic east of the storm and a strong trough crossing the eastern United States late in the week) will influence Matthew's movement.

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As the storm continues its movement this week, the forecast track will be refined multiple times each day.  If Matthew does have any impact on our area, it would not be until the weekend.  Stay tuned for the latest information.

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