Monday-Tuesday storm: Our potential for heavy snow

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RICHMOND, Va. -- The storm that we have been tracking for many days arrives in Virginia on Monday, spreading snow into western Virginia by mid-day, and the metro in the late afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the entire Commonwealth from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

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Periods of steady snow will be likely Monday evening and overnight. As I see it now, the heaviest snow will fall between 10PM and 3AM.  Snow should begin to taper off, west to east, Tuesday morning.  Snow could mix with or change to sleet south of I-64.  There is the chance some plain rain could fall across extreme southeastern Virginia early Tuesday morning.  However, for most areas, the majority of the precipitation will be snow.

The storm track appears that it will move just south of Virginia, keeping us on the cold side of the storm and in the shield of moderate snowfall much of Monday night.  Should this track shift farther south, the amounts will be lower.  Should it shift farther northward, northern Virginia will see the highest accumulations, and central and southern Virginia will see a mixed bag or some rain.

With the current track proposed by the computer models, it looks like much of the state will see at least 4" of snowfall (except parts of southern and southeast Virginia, where sleet and rain will interfere).  There will be many locations that receive 6" to 8", but there does appear to be a band of 8"-10" possibility in the SW mountains to parts of the west-central Piedmont.  Due to the chance of a mix south of I-64, many cities could receive right around 4" of snowfall. So even if you fall within the 4" to 8" range, please know that means you could very well only get 4" of snow at your house.  Based on what I (Carrie) see Monday morning, here is the refined potential snow accumulation map.

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(Once again, for those who look at computer models online, do not treat those numbers as a guarantee.  Keep in mind, those same models, over the past few months, forecast snowfalls over 6" when Richmond did not receive any snow.)

In terms of the travel impacts:

MONDAY

  • Snow possible western Virginia by mid-day
  • Central & eastern Virginia do not see snow until the late afternoon, with the threat for accumulation during the evening rush hour

MONDAY NIGHT

  • Periods of steady snow all locations
  • Travel conditions deteriorating overnight

TUESDAY

  • Snow tapers off in the morning
  • Morning commute greatly impacted; some travel issues during the day

We will continue to provide frequent updates over the next 24 hours.

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