Richmond, Va. – Our next tropical cyclone of the 2014 season may form before the end of this week. If so, it would be named Tropical Storm Cristobal. The hurricane experts at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fl. upgraded the probability of this disturbance organizing to 70% within the next five days.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently planning to fly through the disturbance approaching the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. But even if this low pressure system can’t reach cyclone status, it will still produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall from the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Friday. The latest computer forecast tracks send the system near or over Hispaniola by the end of the week.
If the system does track over Hispaniola, then that could disrupt the intensity and organization. However, whatever is left of the system after that looks like it will move over favorably warm and moist conditions around the Bahamas. You can see that plateau in the intensity forecast around hours 48-60 before ramping up again, potentially near hurricane strength:
This system could impact anywhere from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic, so with plenty of time to prepare, it’s best to monitor subsequent tropical forecasts before changing any coastal plans.
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