A piece of energy will move into the area Monday afternoon and cause scattered thunderstorms. They will start near the mountains around midday, and then move eastward. The highest chance of storms for central and eastern Virginia will be late in the afternoon through late evening. Due to the high humidity and slow movement of the storms, very heavy rainfall will occur. Some storms may be severe and produce strong wind gusts & large hail. There is a good chance that a watch and some warnings will be issued.
A strong cold front will move into the area on Tuesday. It will continue to be hot and muggy ahead of the front, with widespread showers and storms developing. Just like with Monday, heavy rainfall will occur and some severe weather is possible into the evening. The best chance of seeing the severe storms will be areas east of I-95. Highs will range from the mid 80s northwest to the lower 90s southeast.
Here is a computer model projection of possible rainfall totals. Since not all areas will see the same number of storms, localized amounts will vary widely. Areas that see repeated storms Monday into Tuesday could accumulate hefty rain totals, possibly over three or four inches. Eastern and southeastern Virginia will see the heaviest rain totals.
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Rain will exit Wednesday morning, and it will turn cooler and less humid Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.