FRIDAY AM UPDATE: We are tracking our threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. The most likely window in central Virginia for rain and storms will be between 2PM and 10PM.
This threat comes from a small, but potent, storm system with a history of producing severe weather (damaging winds and hail) in the Midwest yesterday.
The warm front linked to the low pressure center will lift north into central Virginia, with a cold front coming at us from the west tonight. Here’s the Friday morning map:
After a dry morning, have your rain gear ready after lunch. I expect scattered showers and storms to develop and move into central Virginia this afternoon. The strongest storms will likely exit the I-95 corridor by 8 PM as the cold front approaches from the west. All storms should exit eastern Virginia by 10PM.
Here is the updated CBS 6 in-house RPM forecast for central Virginia, depicting storms forming, strengthening, and organizing through the afternoon and early evening:
THURSDAY UPDATE: A quick-moving but potent storm system will move through the region Friday, bringing central Virginia a good chance of rain, as well as the potential for strong to severe storms. Here’s the location of the storm system as of Thursday afternoon, with severe thunderstorm watches in yellow:
High clouds will continue overnight tonight into early Friday, with the rain just beginning to reach western Virginia. Here’s the snapshot at 7 AM Friday:
By 1 PM, isolated showers will have moved as far east as the I-95 corridor:
Showers and storms will be likely in central Virginia by 4 PM:
Rain will still be likely in the Richmond metro area through 6 PM:
By 8 PM, the rain should be east of the I-95 corridor:
The best threat for severe weather will be south and east of Richmond where the best combination of warmth, moisture, and wind shear will lie. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail, but a brief tornado will also be possible. We’ll have our CBS 6 Storm Chasers out tracking these storms and bringing you live reports from the field.