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Zach’s snow potential update

Zach Snowfall Forecast

Here is a closer view of Winter Weather Advisory (blue) & Winter Storm Warning (pink) in southern VA. Pink = HEAVY snowfall!

BfEcX1vCQAA2J_x.png large

 

UPDATES IN BOLD (11:50 pm MONDAY):

RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) – Another round of snow is headed to the Commonwealth, and this time, our friends in southside Virginia and Hampton Roads will be the big winners (or losers, depending on what you prefer).  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A DECENT SNOW IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS WELL

An arctic cold front will continue to push through Virginia and into central North Carolina tonight through early Tuesday. Low pressure currently over the northern Gulf of Mexico will ride northeast along the front, tapping into moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic as it crosses northern Florida and southern Georgia.

The upper-level steering flow with this system should keep it on a course that spreads a swath of heavy snow across east-central Georgia, central South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks, and southeastern Virginia.

This path of heaviest snow could shift northwest or southeast depending on the exact track of the system. As far as snow-producing systems go, this one has a very high degree of variability, with some areas seeing less than an inch, and places 20 miles away getting 4 inches or more. The line between the haves and have-nots will be razor-thin.

LATEST WARNINGS & ADVISORIES…EXPECT THIS GRAPHIC FROM THE NWS TO CHANGE TOMORROW.  WE’LL POST THE LATEST WHEN/IF IT CHANGES:
Winter1

HERE’S THE 18Z (MIDDAY) GFS:
WinterGFS

CHECK OUT THIS BIG SHIFT FROM THE NAM OVER THE PAST TWO RUNS…

THIS IS THE NAM FROM 18Z TODAY (MIDDAY RUN):
WinterNAM

AND HERE’S THE LATEST NAM RUN:

state snow nam1

UPDATE:  OOZ NAM IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT (OOZ) RUN. 

HERE’S MY FORECAST SNOWFALL MAP AS OF 11:50 PM MONDAY:

Zach Snowfall Forecast

This thing could still go either way, but I’m seeing enough agreement to make the adjustments reflected above.  I’ll continue to update this blog and my facebook page as we near the start of the event.
-Zach

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