RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) – After mid-range forecast tropical model data indicated the potential for a tropical system from the Atlantic to impact the East Coast by the August 20 to 23 time-frame, that scenario is now highly unlikely. The disturbance that moved off of western Africa as a tropical wave and hinted at symptoms of organization is now kaput. Let’s address both systems we’ve been monitoring over the past week, beginning with the one that will impact Central America today.
Here is what the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven look like this morning as the now-disorganized system approaches Central America from the western Caribbean.
Heavy rains are possible across central America today as the remnants move west at 15 to 20 mph. This system took a similar path to Hurricane Ernesto, which also tracked through the Caribbean and eventually made landfall over the southern Yucatan Peninsula. It was expected to earn a name as it moved through the Caribbean, but that never happened.
This is the tropical wave that moved into the Atlantic from western Africa last week and initially looked like in the forecast model data that it could eventually reach the East Coast. It showed some potential of becoming Tropical Depression Eight, but has not been able to organize itself, despite moving over very warm open Atlantic waters.
This low pressure trough is now over the central Atlantic Ocean, approximately 1100 miles southeast of Bermuda. It poses no threat to land, and is only producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is unlikely soon, but there is still the potential as it moves over the undisturbed, very warm Atlantic Ocean waters that it could in the next several days become Tropical Depression Eight. The next name on the list is Gordon, but that may be a long-shot for this still-unimpressive system to reach that status. Forecast tracks curve this system north and northeast, never impacting the U.S. East Coast. Here is a broader Atlantic Basin view so you can see where both systems are located:
CLICK HERE for the updated 2012 hurricane forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
No other tropical development is expected in the near-future.
So far this 2012 Atlantic tropical cyclone season has produced tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, and Florence, along with hurricanes Chris and Ernesto.