RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) - There is the slight risk for afternoon and evening strong to severe thunderstorms in southeast Virginia. A strong upper-level disturbance will track just north of us, providing ample lift this afternoon and evening for storm development. In addition, we also have an approaching surface cold front attached to the surface low pressure linked to the upper storm system.
Our primary threats out of any storms that intensify will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 58 mph and some large hail.
Two rounds of storms may occur during this slight risk time-frame. Between 1 p.m. and 6 p.m., I expect scattered strong to severe storms to track east through the yellow highlighted area, intensifying because of warmer air and better low-level moisture there behind this morning's warm front slowly lifting north. Between 8 and 10 p.m., another slim chance for isolated storms will occur as the surface cold front starts racing eastward through the Commonwealth, scouring out our moisture and ending any threat for storms or rain.
One factor that has limited storm intensification this afternoon and evening is our morning rainfall and lingering cloud-cover. If we do not get the necessary warming this afternoon to generate better instability, storms will not be able to intensify as much as they could with more breaks in the clouds and heat-generated instability.
Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
Meteorologist Carrie Rose